In Strasbourg on Sept. 16, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed that Canada become the European Union’s first associate member and said the two sides would move from their existing trade agreement to what she called an Alliance for the Future. The Prime Minister sat in the chamber as her invited guest. What she put on the table, in plain words, was an offer to negotiate a relationship the Union has never granted to anyone.
Set that offer beside Alberta’s books. In 2024 the province sold $1.8 billion worth of goods into the 27 member states out of $182.6 billion in total merchandise exports, while 88.5% of the total went to the United States, according to Statistics Canada trade data compiled by ATB Financial. By our arithmetic that works out to close to $90 of goods sold to American buyers for every $1 sold to European ones. The European share was about 1% in 2014 as well, even though the dollar value grew 40% over the decade.
The offer is serious. The ledger is larger.
Key facts
- The European Commission’s 2026 State of the Union address, delivered in Strasbourg on Sept. 16, 2026, proposed that Canada become the European Union’s first associate member.
- Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union limits applications for membership to European states and requires ratification of any accession agreement by every member state.
- The European Commission’s page on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) lists 10 of the 27 member states as not yet having completed national ratification of the agreement, which has been provisionally applied since Sept. 21, 2017.
- Alberta exported $1.8 billion in goods to the European Union in 2024 out of $182.6 billion in total merchandise exports, with 88.5% going to the United States, per Statistics Canada data as compiled by ATB Financial on Feb. 12, 2025.
- TransCanada Corporation told the National Energy Board on Oct. 5, 2017 that it would no longer proceed with Energy East, a 1.1 million barrel a day crude pipeline it had announced on Aug. 1, 2013.
What the European treaties let Canada become
The Treaty on European Union is specific about who may join. Article 49 opens with “Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2,” and it requires the Council to agree unanimously and every member state to ratify before a new member is admitted. Canada fails the first test on geography alone, and no amount of goodwill in Strasbourg amends a treaty article.
The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union offers a different instrument. Article 217 allows the Union to conclude, with third countries, agreements that set up an association involving reciprocal rights and obligations. That describes a contract between the Union and a partner, and the article says nothing about membership.
The gap between the speech and the text sits in one sentence: the address promised to “move from CETA to an Alliance for the Future,” while Article 217 authorizes “agreements establishing an association,” and only the second phrase carries legal force. Canada’s ambassador-designate to the Union, Jonathan Wilkinson, said the two sides would eventually settle how to describe the arrangement. On Sept. 17, addressing the European Parliament, the Prime Minister said Canada welcomed the ambition and committed that any enhanced partnership would go to debate and a final vote in Parliament.
Why a nine-year provisional trade deal matters to the new offer
The speech credited the existing agreement with goods trade growth of 75% in less than a decade. The European Commission’s own ratification page tells a slower story. Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia have not completed national ratification, which means CETA has run on a provisional basis since Sept. 21, 2017. A broader arrangement is being proposed on top of an agreement that ten national parliaments have yet to finish.
For Alberta the comparison that matters is between the two customers. The one that takes about $90 of every $91 the two markets buy from Alberta reacted before the Prime Minister reached the podium. Speaking to reporters on his way to an event in North Carolina on Sept. 16, the President of the United States called the proposal laughable and said he would impose heavy tariffs on Europe if he judged it a hostile act. A European Commission spokesperson answered that the initiative was aimed against no one. ATB Financial’s reading of Statistics Canada data puts the American share of Alberta’s exports at 86% in 2025, lower than the year before and still the largest share by a wide margin. Anyone weighing the Strasbourg offer should read it alongside the Gulf Coast refiners Alberta already sells to.
What Europe would need from Alberta to change the ledger
In his Strasbourg address the Prime Minister said Canada “can contribute LNG and hydrogen at large scale” to European energy security. The federal file that would have moved western crude toward the Atlantic had a precise design. TransCanada announced Energy East on Aug. 1, 2013 as a 1.1 million barrel a day line, roughly 4,400 kilometres long, with delivery points in Montréal, the Québec City region and Saint John, New Brunswick, and a marine terminus at Canaport. On Oct. 5, 2017 the company told the National Energy Board it would no longer proceed “after careful review of changed circumstances.”
The dates line up closely. CETA began provisional application on Sept. 21, 2017, and Energy East was withdrawn 14 days later, by our arithmetic. Canada started its European trade agreement and lost its east-bound crude pipeline inside the same fortnight, and a decade later Europe still buys about 1% of what Alberta ships abroad. The toll math behind the proposed west coast pipeline shows how much of any export route comes down to a permit and a tariff schedule, which no speech supplies.
The European Union and Canada open two days of talks on terms in Montreal on Oct. 29, ten member states still have CETA ratification outstanding on that date, and whatever structure Ottawa accepts goes to Parliament for debate and a vote before Alberta exporters see a single changed rule.
Frequently asked questions
What did Ursula von der Leyen offer Canada in Strasbourg?
In the European Commission’s State of the Union address on Sept. 16, 2026, she proposed that Canada become the European Union’s first associate member and said the two sides would move from their existing trade agreement to what she called an Alliance for the Future. The Prime Minister sat in the chamber as her invited guest and, addressing the European Parliament on Sept. 17, said Canada welcomed the ambition and committed that any enhanced partnership would go to debate and a final vote in Parliament. The two sides were set to open two days of talks on terms in Montreal on Oct. 29.
Can Canada actually join the European Union?
Not under the treaties as written. Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union opens membership to “any European State” and requires the Council to agree unanimously and every member state to ratify before a new member is admitted. Canada fails the geography test, and no speech amends a treaty article. Associate membership does not exist in EU law either: Article 217 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union authorizes the Union to conclude association agreements with third countries, which are contracts between partners, not membership.
Where does CETA stand after nine years?
The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement has been provisionally applied since Sept. 21, 2017. Ten of the 27 member states, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia, have not completed national ratification. The broader arrangement now proposed would sit on top of an agreement that ten national parliaments have yet to finish.
How much of Alberta’s exports go to Europe compared with the United States?
In 2024, Alberta sold $1.8 billion worth of goods into the 27 member states out of $182.6 billion in total merchandise exports, while 88.5% of the total went to the United States, according to Statistics Canada trade data compiled by ATB Financial. That works out to close to $90 of goods sold to American buyers for every $1 sold to European ones. The European share was about 1% in 2014 as well, even though the dollar value grew 40% over the decade.
What did the United States say about the EU offer to Canada?
Speaking to reporters on his way to an event in North Carolina on Sept. 16, the President of the United States called the proposal laughable and said he would impose heavy tariffs on Europe if he judged it a hostile act. A European Commission spokesperson answered that the initiative was aimed against no one. ATB Financial’s reading of Statistics Canada data puts the American share of Alberta’s exports at 86% in 2025, lower than the year before and still the largest share by a wide margin.
