Question 5 of Statistics Canada’s third-quarter Canadian Survey on Business Conditions asks which obstacles a business expects over the next three months, and tells respondents to “Select all that apply.” Between July 2 and Aug. 6, 41.6% of businesses in Canada selected inflation, which made it the most commonly expected obstacle in the country. In the second quarter the same box drew 48.8%.
- Key facts
- What the survey counts as a cost
- Which federal lines sit inside those costs
- Frequently asked questions
- What share of Canadian businesses expect inflation to be an obstacle?
- What is the single most challenging obstacle for Canadian businesses?
- Which industries worry most about inflation?
- What counts as a cost-related obstacle in the StatCan survey?
- How many Canadian businesses expect US tariffs to hurt them?
- What are the 2026 EI payroll costs for employers?
That is the whole of what the headline number measures. It counts businesses that expect a problem, and it says nothing about how many dollars the problem costs any one of them. The release publishes no Alberta figure, so every share below is national.
Key facts
- Statistics Canada’s Canadian Survey on Business Conditions for the third quarter of 2026, released Aug. 31, 2026, found that 41.6% of businesses in Canada expected inflation to be an obstacle over the next three months, compared with 48.8% in the second quarter.
- Statistics Canada reported that 59.8% of businesses expected at least one cost-related obstacle in the third quarter of 2026, down from 64.3% in the second quarter, with responses collected from July 2 to Aug. 6, 2026.
- Asked for the single most challenging expected obstacle, 12.4% of Canadian businesses named inflation, 8.9% named recruiting skilled employees and 7.2% named the cost of inputs, according to the Aug. 31, 2026 release.
- The Canada Employment Insurance Commission set the 2026 employer premium at $2.28 per $100 of insurable earnings, on maximum insurable earnings of $68,900, in a release dated Sept. 12, 2025.
- The Department of Finance announced on Aug. 25, 2026 counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% or 50% on $27.6 billion of imports from the United States, effective Sept. 8, 2026.
What the survey counts as a cost
Statistics Canada’s release defines the cost-related group plainly. It covers inflation, the cost of inputs, interest rates and debt costs, the cost of insurance, real estate, leasing or property taxes, and transportation costs. Nearly six in ten businesses, 59.8%, expected at least one of them, down from 64.3% a quarter earlier. The pressure is uneven. Inflation was expected to be an obstacle by 58.3% of businesses in accommodation and food services, 51.8% in construction and 48.7% in manufacturing.
A second question sharpens the first. Question 6 asks which of the selected obstacles is expected to be the most challenging, and 12.4% of businesses picked inflation. Because a business can only rank an obstacle it has already ticked, by our arithmetic about three in ten of the businesses that listed inflation also ranked it first. Most of them expect it to hurt and expect something else to hurt more.
Tariffs sit in a separate part of the questionnaire. According to the release, 32.2% of businesses expected tariffs imposed by the United States on Canadian goods to have a negative effect, 27.4% had passed tariff-related cost increases on to customers over the previous 12 months, and 30.4% said they were very or somewhat likely to do so over the next 12.
Which federal lines sit inside those costs
A falling inflation share does not mean the federal lines on a business’s ledger fell with it. Payroll is the clearest case, because both premiums a business remits on every paycheque belong to federal programs. The Canada Employment Insurance Commission sets the employment insurance rate each year on a seven-year break-even forecast from the program’s senior actuary, and the Canada Revenue Agency publishes the Canada Pension Plan ceilings.
The commission’s release for 2026 calls the new rate “a one-cent decrease from the 2025 rate,” while the same release puts the maximum annual employer contribution at $1,572.30 per employee, up $63.83. Both statements are accurate. The rate fell to $1.63 per $100 for employees and $2.28 per $100 for employers, and the ceiling it applies to rose from $65,700 to $68,900, so the cheque grew. The Canada Revenue Agency’s second additional contribution to the Canada Pension Plan moved the same way, with the employer maximum rising from $396 in 2025 to $416 in 2026 at an unchanged 4% rate.
By our arithmetic, an employer with a worker earning above both ceilings pays $83.83 more for that worker in 2026 on those two lines alone, before the base pension contribution is counted. A 20-person shop at that pay level carries $1,676.60 more in federal payroll remittances this year, and none of it shows up in a survey question about inflation.
The second federal line arrived after the survey closed. Collection ended Aug. 6. The Department of Finance announced its counter-tariffs on Aug. 25 and put them in force on Sept. 8, on steel and aluminum products, agricultural equipment, appliances and other goods, as set out in Ottawa’s $27.6 billion tariff fight. The release says Canada’s existing tariff remission framework remains open to businesses seeking relief, which offers relief case by case and leaves the rates where they are. Alberta firms that buy American inputs were already paying the counter tariff bill to Ottawa earlier this month.
Every Alberta employer remits $2.28 per $100 of insurable earnings on each pay run through Dec. 31, the counter-tariffs apply to affected imports at the border from Sept. 8 onward, and the next quarterly edition of the survey is the first whose three-month window falls entirely after that date.
Frequently asked questions
What share of Canadian businesses expect inflation to be an obstacle?
Between July 2 and August 6, 2026, 41.6% of businesses in Canada selected inflation, which made it the most commonly expected obstacle in the country. In the second quarter the same box drew 48.8%. The survey question tells respondents to “select all that apply,” so it counts businesses that expect a problem and says nothing about how many dollars the problem costs any one of them. The release publishes no Alberta figure, so every share here is national.
What is the single most challenging obstacle for Canadian businesses?
A second question asks which of the selected obstacles is expected to be the most challenging. In the third quarter of 2026, 12.4% of Canadian businesses named inflation, 8.9% named recruiting skilled employees and 7.2% named the cost of inputs, according to the August 31, 2026 release.
Which industries worry most about inflation?
Inflation was expected to be an obstacle by 58.3% of businesses in accommodation and food services, 51.8% in construction and 48.7% in manufacturing. Nearly six in ten businesses overall, 59.8%, expected at least one cost-related obstacle, down from 64.3% a quarter earlier.
What counts as a cost-related obstacle in the StatCan survey?
Statistics Canada’s release defines the cost-related group plainly: inflation, the cost of inputs, interest rates and debt costs, the cost of insurance, real estate, leasing or property taxes, and transportation costs.
How many Canadian businesses expect US tariffs to hurt them?
The Q3 2026 survey found that 32.2% of businesses expect American tariffs on Canadian imports to negatively affect their operations over the next 12 months, with manufacturers most exposed at 49.7%. Separately, the Department of Finance announced on August 25, 2026 counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% or 50% on $27.6 billion of imports from the United States, effective September 8, 2026.
What are the 2026 EI payroll costs for employers?
The Canada Employment Insurance Commission set the 2026 employer premium at $2.28 per $100 of insurable earnings, on maximum insurable earnings of $68,900, in a release dated September 12, 2025. Those ceilings kept rising even as inflation topped the list of business worries.
