In March 2024, Energy Safety Canada’s labour market outlook counted between 68,700 and 69,500 energy workers eligible to retire and a net hiring need of 110,000 to 116,000. In June 2026, the next edition counted 54,200 and 72,600. A retirement figure that is smaller by about a fifth deserves an explanation before it earns a headline.
The newer edition runs to 2035 and covers nine energy sectors and 81 occupations, according to the organization’s release of June 11, 2026. It is a national outlook, and none of the figures reviewed for this column is an Alberta-only number.
Key facts
- Energy Safety Canada’s National Labour Market Outlook to 2035 counts about 192,500 direct workers and about 370,000 indirect workers, with about 18,400 new direct jobs by 2035 (Energy Safety Canada, June 11, 2026).
- The outlook counts about 54,200 workers eligible to retire over the forecast period and a net hiring requirement of about 72,600 if every age-related opening is replaced (Energy Safety Canada, June 11, 2026).
- The 2024 edition counted 68,700 to 69,500 workers eligible to retire and a net hiring requirement of 110,000 to 116,000 (Energy Safety Canada, March 15, 2024).
- The regional outlook for Western Canada counts about 175,900 current workers, 19,750 direct jobs of growth by 2035 and 69,400 total hires, growth and retirements together (Energy Safety Canada, August 10, 2026).
What changed between the editions
The two figures for retirements differ by 14,500 to 15,300, which is a fall of about 21% to 22% by Alberta Tribune arithmetic. The net hiring need fell by 37,400 to 43,400, or about 34% to 37%, by the same arithmetic. In the 2026 edition the hiring need is the sum of the two parts the release gives: 18,400 new jobs and 54,200 openings from retirements add to 72,600.
The release gives no definition of the energy workforce count’s eligibility test and no base year, and the report reviewed describes a single scenario built on announced plans and policies as of March 2026. The 2024 edition tied its figure to age-related attrition, meaning retirements and deaths. The two editions may therefore count the same people differently, and the horizon of the 2024 edition was not reviewed. A comparison across them is a prompt for questions and not a trend.
The gain, and its limit
There is a real gain in the newer figure. A smaller retirement count means a smaller gap to fill, and the replacement need is 72,600 against 110,000 to 116,000 two years earlier. The June release adds that shortages could appear as early as 2027.
The limit is that eligibility is a ceiling, and the number of people who actually leave is lower. The 54,200 is also 28% of the 192,500 direct workers, by Alberta Tribune arithmetic, and the release does not say if the two figures cover the same base. That makes the ratio a rough guide.
The Western Canada figures
The regional outlook of August 10 counts 69,400 hires across Western Canada, growth plus retirements. Subtract the 19,750 growth jobs and the retirement share comes to about 49,650, by Alberta Tribune arithmetic. The release does not list which provinces sit in the region, so no Alberta share can be read from it.
The energy workforce is not the only one counted. A different workforce is counted in BuildForce Canada’s Alberta forecast of July 20, 2026, which covers construction and maintenance and not oil and gas. It projects 43,700 retirements, or 21% of the 2025 construction labour force, and 48,800 workers to add by 2035. Those figures belong to another sector and cannot be added to the energy numbers.
Where to check
The Energy Safety Canada release of June 11 carries the national figures, and the regional release of August 10 carries the Western Canada figures. The BuildForce release covers the Alberta construction forecast.
A count of who is able to leave is a ceiling, and a hiring plan has to be written against the number who actually go.
