The International Energy Agency says global data centre electricity demand is on course to “more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours,” in its April 2025 Energy and AI report. That forecast only holds if someone has spare, deliverable power to hand out. In Alberta, data centre power is handed out by the Alberta Electric System Operator, and its answer so far is 1,200 megawatts.
The AESO set that interim limit in its June 4, 2025 announcement, calling it the most the grid can serve through 2028 without hurting reliability. The same release counted 29 proposed projects asking for more than 16 gigawatts. By Tribune arithmetic, requests outran room by better than 13 to 1.
Key facts
- The International Energy Agency projected on April 10, 2025 that global data centre demand would reach around 945 terawatt-hours by 2030.
- The Alberta Electric System Operator set an interim limit of up to 1,200 megawatts of large load connections through 2028 on June 4, 2025.
- The AESO reported 29 proposed data centre projects seeking more than 16 gigawatts of grid capacity in that June 4, 2025 announcement.
- Alberta’s Bill 8 and Bill 12 received Royal Assent on December 11, 2025, adding data centre regulation powers and a levy on facilities drawing 75 megawatts or more.
Alberta’s gate is a grid queue, and it has already been used once
Quebec requires ministerial authorization for data centre projects of 5 megawatts or more, according to a July 2026 analysis from the law firm BLG. Alberta’s interim process works differently. The AESO asked developers for a municipal letter of support, financial security and power flow studies showing no transmission upgrades were needed. A minister’s signature was not on the list.
That does not make the gate open. It makes the AESO the gate. By January 2026, Bennett Jones reported, the first 1,200 megawatts had gone to two projects with executed contracts and delivery anticipated by 2028. Everything else waits for Phase 2. The AESO promised a proposal in early 2026, and in its September 8, 2026 update it was still finalizing the bring-your-own-generation process, with no capacity figure published.
Announcements pile up behind two contracts
The pipeline of announced projects is much longer than the list of contracted ones, and that gap is where the useful reporting sits. Beacon AI Centers’ 1,494 megawatt gas plant proposal near Indus and Tourmaline’s Malachite project near Edson share one feature. Both bring their own generation instead of waiting for a share of the grid’s 1,200 megawatts.
Provincial policy points the same way. Bill 8 lets the minister write regulations on data centre classes, grid access and load shedding, and Bennett Jones reads it as prioritizing projects that contract directly with generators to add net power. Bill 12 puts a levy on grid-connected facilities of 75 megawatts or more, valued on computing equipment and credited against Alberta corporate income tax. The rate is 2% for full grid reliance and 1% for projects supplied by new power or self-generation. A developer reading that table concludes that the cheapest route to a connection runs through its own turbines.
Cold air and cheap gas help only after the connection is secured
The optimistic case deserves a fair statement. Alberta runs the only deregulated electricity generation market in Canada, which has drawn private generation investment since it opened. It sits on large natural gas supply. Its cooler climate gives data halls free cooling for much of the year, and a Bennett Jones review of the province’s data centre case says as much. All of that holds.
It also describes operating costs. Cold air trims the chiller bill on a running facility, and cheap gas lowers the price of a megawatt-hour once one is flowing. Neither adds a megawatt to the AESO’s limit. The builders that matter are the ones who can show a generator, a transmission path and a signed contract, which is a narrower group than the list of announcements. The smaller AI data centre builds at wellsites and substations are one way to fit under the ceiling. The rural host community questions around Meta’s Sturgeon County plans show what a county asks before power is even on the table.
The window is a queue date, not a calendar year
Chips can be ordered. Transformers, turbines and transmission lines take years, and a regulator’s allocation takes a decision. The AESO’s stated rationale for the cap is reliability, which is a reason to expect it to move slowly and by design.
If the AESO has not issued Phase 2 allocations by December 31, 2026, the 1,200 megawatts will remain the only grid capacity assigned for 2027 and 2028 in-service dates, and the next Alberta data centres to energize will be the ones that brought their own gas.
