Oil, natural gas and potash appear on neither of the two tariff lists now in force between Canada and the United States. Washington left them out of its 50% duties, and Ottawa left them out of the counter-tariffs that took effect on September 8, 2026. The two governments disagree on nearly everything else in the dispute, and they wrote the same exemption.
That is the most useful fact for Alberta in a fight that has mostly been described through Ontario assembly lines and Quebec smelters. It is also easy to misread, so the documents are worth reading line by line.
Key facts
- The United States applied 50% Section 338 duties to more than 550 categories of Canadian goods on August 22, 2026, and the White House fact sheet of July 20, 2026 excludes energy products and potash.
- Canada’s counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% took effect at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, 2026, on a revised list of 629 US items that omits oil, gas and potash.
- Finance Canada’s revised list targets about $20 billion in US imports, down from the $27.6 billion announced on August 25, 2026.
- ATB Financial reported on July 13, 2026 that energy made up about three-quarters of Alberta’s merchandise exports through May 2026 and that 80% of those exports went to the United States.
The American duties fall on dairy, drink and consumer goods
The US measure rests on Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a provision that lets a president impose duties of up to 50% on a country found to discriminate against American commerce. Proclamations signed July 20 went live after the deadline for a deal passed, and the 50% duties took effect on August 22. Prime Minister Mark Carney put the affected goods at roughly $28 billion.
The product list reads like a grocery and liquor aisle. Dairy, honey, whey protein, molasses, whiskey and vodka sit on it beside wine and hockey sticks. Oil, gas and potash were left out, as were canola seed, oil and meal. Goods already hit by separate Section 232 duties, the category that covers steel, aluminum and autos, are carved out of the new 50% layer rather than stacked under it.
So the common picture of a trade war aimed at Ontario’s auto plants does not match the text. The text is aimed at dairy, alcohol and a long tail of consumer products, and it applies even to goods that qualify under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. Alberta’s biggest exports were never in the target area. The Section 338 law itself is old and untested, which matters for what comes next.
Canada put steel and machinery on its own list
Ottawa’s response is the document with more Alberta in it. The counter-tariffs match the US rates at 15%, 25% and 50%, and the revised list of 629 items cut 874 original lines after fish and seafood came off. Primary steel and aluminum jump from 25% to 50%. Pulp, paper, plywood and dairy sit at 50% too. Major appliances and sawn lumber carry 25%, and parts for farm machinery and lifting equipment carry 15%.
The sums need a caveat. Ottawa announced the list at $27.6 billion, then said the revised version targets about $20 billion. The coverage reviewed does not state the currency for either figure, so the two should not be treated as one number or compared to Carney’s $28 billion without that check.
Carney addressed the country by video on September 8 as the surtaxes started. “That pivot will come at a cost,” he said, referring to the shift of trade away from the United States. The cost lands where the list lands. Goods in transit on September 8 escaped the surtax, and any relief after that comes through remission, which the orders allow only when a buyer cannot source the item at home or outside the United States.
Staying off the lists does not protect Alberta
ATB Financial’s export update gives the exposure in two numbers. Energy accounts for about three-quarters of Alberta’s merchandise exports, worth $61 billion through May 2026, and 80% of everything the province exports goes to one customer. An exemption written into a presidential proclamation lasts as long as the proclamation does. A president can amend the text, and Washington had already announced import bans on Canadian dairy, motorcycles and alcohol to begin September 29, weeks after the duties started. The tool is flexible, and the exemption is a choice rather than a right.
Alberta gets a second, less visible exposure from Ottawa’s list. This is analysis, not a published figure. The counter-tariffs cover US-made pumps, compressors, fans, harvest machinery parts and construction machinery parts, along with primary steel. Those are inputs for the kind of operations Alberta runs, from oilfield service shops to grain farms. A 15% or 50% surtax on an input is a cost to the buyer, and the buyer is often in a province that was never part of the original dispute.
The remission route decides how much of that cost sticks. Because relief is granted after implementation, a business pays first and applies later, and the burden sits on the purchaser to show no alternative supplier exists. A federal government that wants the cost spread fairly would publish the tests and the turnaround time before the first invoices arrive. Earlier columns cover Alberta oil at the bargaining table and the annual CUSMA reviews. An Alberta buyer of a US-made compressor pays the surtax first and applies for relief afterward.
