Premier Danielle Smith ruled out an oil export tax on August 26, a day after Ottawa unveiled nearly $28 billion in counter-tariffs on U.S. goods that leave energy exports out for now.
Key facts
- Ottawa’s counter-tariff package, announced August 25, 2026 through the Department of Finance Canada, totals nearly $28 billion and takes effect September 8 unless a settlement comes first.
- The package leaves Canadian energy exports out for now.
- Smith ruled out taxing or cutting Alberta’s oil exports to the United States as retaliation.
- Alberta exports about 4 million barrels of crude a day to the United States, worth roughly $80 billion last year, according to Smith’s remarks.
- A spokesperson for the federal Jobs Minister estimated that $4.8 billion in U.S. goods flowing into Alberta, about 11.1% of the province’s American imports, would be captured by the counter-tariffs.
Ottawa left energy off the list for now
The federal package targets goods such as steel, aluminum, smartphones and golf clubs. The federal estimate rests on a five-year average of Alberta’s imports, so the $4.8 billion is a measure of exposure and not a forecast of lost trade.
Smith’s case rests on refiners and supply lines
Alberta ships about 4 million barrels of crude a day south. Smith warned that an export tax would draw a disproportionate American response, including a cutoff of gasoline and diesel to Ontario and Quebec as fall and winter arrive, and would give U.S. refiners a reason to source crude elsewhere. Venezuela’s limited output makes that second risk a medium-term one at best, as the Venezuela joint venture shows. The first risk needs no new supply to hurt.
The premier wants Ottawa back at the table
Smith urged the federal government to use the time before September 8 to return to negotiations, and suggested the prime minister offer increased Alberta oil production to help secure a deal. She said such a policy would end the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of Albertans.
The date to watch is September 8, when the counter-tariffs take effect unless a settlement comes first.
